From Evernote:

Known Unknowns

Sitting here waiting for the cab I've set to wondering what it's going to be like. I've done the obligatory Google search for Anne Beadell highway and found an old 2006 Australian Geographic magazine with a map of the area and an article of the nuclear tests that took place in the woomera testing range. Strange to think well be cycling past 'ground zero' for a 10kt nuclear bomb.

Back on the race, what's it going to be like? The 4WD website exploreOz rates the trail 4 out of 5 stars for difficulty. That's the same rating as the Simpson Desert Rig Road. I think the dunes are smaller and the track narrower. After the rain we have had (and there has been some along the Anne Beadell) I think there will be plenty of vegetation that will make the track appear narrower still. This will limit the ability of competitors to do the Indian Scout trick, I.e. get out of a sandy trail and pick your way through the vegetation along the side. If there is sand on the track we'll all have to ride through it.

Corrugations also feature notably in the information I've managed to gather. There are plenty of stories of vehicles limping into Coober Pedy with damage from corrugations. On a fully rigid bike that could be interesting, though the suspension last year didn't really help! Sometimes a bicycle can pick a clear line through corrugations given it's so much thinner than a car. Still, I'm sure they will be a literal pain in the arse.

Weather is the last consideration. The Simpson is famed for it's dust storms. They are what built the dunes in the first place. We had two major storms last year and it was on these that the rest of the field had trouble. The Anne Beadell looks to have more vegetation and better weather so we should see less dust flying. I'm happy with that, especially if it's radioactive dust.

All in all then, what can we guess in foresight that we might know in hindsight? If the race had moved to the road you could quite easily say that the fittest guy with the fastest bike would come first. It hasn't. 600km is a long way off road whichever way you look at it. Add in soft sand and a remote desert location it's going to be tough. Same as last year, I think it's going to the simple things that stop people; not drinking enough, not eating enough, getting a puncture, pumping your tyres too hard.